Editor’s Note: The United Kingdom finally left the European Union (EU) at 11 p.m. on Jan 31, 2020, after being a member of the EU for 47 years. Despite a referendum passing in 2016 by a very slim margin that requested the extraction of the UK from the EU, it has been a long three years of butter argument to reach this point. Even now, it is estimated that roughly half of the population are delighted with Brexit and the other half are devastated. But what are thinking on the other side of the English Channel? Nicole Prévost Logan is back to give her thoughts from Paris on how the French see the whole business and where we all go from here.
The historic day has finally come … applauded by some and mourned by others.
The United Kingdom has left the European Union (EU). With emotional tears the deputies of the European Parliament sang Auld Lang Syne – a 1788 Scottish song with a traditional folk tune – and hugged each other.
Now the real work is starting. The UK has only an 11-month transition period (starting Feb. 1) to negotiate the terms of Brexit.
On both sides of the English Channel there is, at least for now, a feeling of relief that a decision has been reached.
How did Boris Johnson win
The French have been very impressed by the dexterity with which Boris Johnson (BJ) was able out to turn around the majority in the House of Commons: the Tories won 364 seats, an increase of 48 seats while the Labour party took 262, representing a loss of 60. “Salut l’Artiste” (congratulations to the artist), wrote Françoise Fressoz, Le Monde editorialist on Jan. 8. On a radio talk show, a commentator said that BJ has become a model for the French Right: a conservative with social projects. The French feel that BJ, because of his super majority, is going to negotiate from a position of strength.
A brillant strategist, he put his focus on the less wealthy population of the North of England and the Midlands, who supported Brexit. He undercut the Labour party by proposing a number of social measures such as raising the minimum wage, encouraging apprenticeships, building 40 hospitals and schools, and investing in railroad tracks at the cost of 100s of billions pounds sterling. How will these projects be carried out? How they will be paid for? Not a mention of that in his campaign.
The other part of his strategy was to put pressure on the EU. It is not clear how he did this, possibly in making concessions. In a populist fashion, he probably told the Europeans what they wanted to hear. A French journalist-columnist for The Daily Telegraph said BJ bluffed his way through. His optimism is more appealing that May’s stubbornness. The French like another trait of his: his culture. On our TV screens here, we saw him recite The Iliad poem for two and a half hours in classical Greek.
With Brexit both sides will lose, but many feel the UK will lose more. The UK exports 47 percent of its products to Europe whereas the EU exports only 20 percent. Some have compared Donald Trump’s attitude toward the EU to Boris Johnson’s. There is one big difference though: BJ is not trying to destroy Europe.
Immigration has been at the core of Brexit since the beginning. In this area, there is an inner contradiction. Although the UK was never part of the Schengen Area (which guarantees freedom of circulation of the people), it still took advantage of the accession of eight new states to the EU in 2004, and 2007, to welcome these new labor forces – particularly from Poland. It is unknown at this point how this situation will be resolved under Brexit.
The transition period
What’s going to happen during the transition? Concretely, very little except that the Union Jack will not fly any more at the entrance of the EU HQ.
In the immediate term, ferry boats will continue crossing The Channel and Eurostar will continue to carry passengers and goods. There will be no custom duties, no tariffs, and no visas required.
However, some changes are going to be immediately painful for the UK. The 73 British deputies at the European Parliament packed their bags on Jan. 31. The British Commissioners have been gone for a while. This means that the UK will not participate in the decision-making process, while it will still have to contribute to the EU budget and abide by the decisions of the European Court of Justice.
Michel Barnier from France has been appointed again as chief negotiator. This is good news for everybody because he is a consensus-making personality. He will work with a group of deputies from the European Parliament in Strasbourg, Barnier has always stressed that the EU is not out to punish the UK. Its only objective is to protect the EU’s interests. Barnier feels sorry for the British population that was misinformed prior to the 2016 referendum.
The task ahead
In the simplest of terms, it is Herculean.
The UK is party to more than 600 international agreements with around 100 other countries through its EU membership. As it leaves the EU , the UK will be cut off from these agreements. However, it can retain its place whenever the UK signed an agreement in its own right. The undoing of all these agreements is called (delightfully) “detricotage” in French (tricoter is to knit.)
The country has already taken steps to secure continuity in its relationships with other countries. Examples include a treaty maintaining the UK’s civil nuclear trade; bilateral aviation agreements with the US and Canada; citizens rights agreements with Norway, Iceland, and Switzerland; protection for Scotch and Irish Whiskey exports.
The Lancaster House Bilateral Treaty of 2010 between the UK and France is a good example. It was signed between then French President Sarkozy and then UK Prime Minister Cameron and concerns Defense and Security Cooperation. Nathalie Loiseau, former French minister for European Affairs is the president of the Commission on Security and Defense of the European Parliament.
One of the greatest fears in Europe is the prospect of a “Singapore-on-Thames.” This would mean a country disrespectful of social and environmental norms and regulations. Fiscal dumping will not be tolerated, says Brussels. “There will not be quotas nor tariff if the UK forgets about dumping” writes the newspaper La Croix.
The first issue to be tackled will be fishing. The negotiators will sit down around the negotiating table as early as Feb. 3, 2020. The French fishermen have for years been fishing in 60 percent of the time in British waters. The problem is that the British fisherman need the huge Single Market of 500 million people to sell their catch … and they already complain about quotas, which are imposed in order to avoid the depletion of fish!
France is one of the closest commercial partners of the UK (its foreign trade with that country has a trade surplus of 12 billion Euros), which mean that it is particularly exposed to the consequences of the Brexit. The manufacturing sector, such as the automobile industry, is fully integrated with Europe and relies on spare parts coming from the continent. Every day 1,100 trucks transport parts back and forth through the Channel. Aeronautics is facing a huge logistics problems since Air Bus employs 13,500 people in Great Britain.
The pharmaceutical industry, such as Sanofi, prepared for the Brexit by accumulating huge quantities of drugs. The Total energy company is relocating its treasury department from London to Paris.
The traders of BNP Paribas Paris – the largest European bank in the UK – will have to leave the City of London whenever dealing with European clients. HSBC – the largest bank in the EU – is relocating many of its units to Paris. One thousand personnel have already moved. Bank of America is now located on Rue de la Boetie in Paris. J.P. Morgan has also relocated here.
The complicated problem of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland seems to have been defused. One hears now that, in the long term, the two Irelands may be reunited. The border would then go under the Irish Channel and the North Sea. The idea of a “backstop,” which we heard so much about under Theresa May’s watch, seems to have vanished today.
In a recent debate, Pascal Lamy, Honorary Director of the Jacques Delors Institute (Delors was one of the founding fathers of the EU. He created the Single Market in 1993) made a few remarks about
Prognosis for the future
The more the UK diverges from the EU’s norms, the thicker the wall between them will grow. The 27 members of the EU are extremely attached to the Single Market, the largest in the world. It seems likely that BJ will in the end up aligned with Europe. If BJ carries out his proposed social policy, the public deficit risks will be enormous. Will there be “Boris Bonds” ?
Recently the populist governments in Denmark and Italy have collapsed. Johnson’s electoral base is a mismatch between the less wealthy Brexiteers of the North and the rich ones from London. Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland and Arlene Foster in Northern Ireland will have an important role to play in whether there is going to be a break-up of the United Kingdom or not. The UK will likely remain closer to the EU than the US.
On Dec. 13, 2019, some European leaders stated their position toward Brexit in carefully selected words:
Charles Michel, president of the European Council said, “We are ready.”
German Chancellor Angela Merkel noted, “This will be a challenge.”
French President Emanuel Macron stated: “We welcome a new partner who should be a fair competitor.”
And in a Jan. 30, 2020 interview on French radio, Her Majesty’s Ambassador to France, Baron Llewellyn of Steep, said in the most British of ways,”Let’s have a cup of tea and go to work!”
Editor’s Note: This is the opinion of Nicole Prévost Logan.
About the author: Nicole Prévost Logan divides her time between Essex and Paris, spending summers in the former and winters in the latter. She writes a regular column for us from her Paris home where her topics will include politics, economy, social unrest — mostly in France — but also in other European countries. She also covers a variety of art exhibits and the performing arts in Europe. Logan is the author of ‘Forever on the Road: A Franco-American Family’s Thirty Years in the Foreign Service,’ an autobiography of her life as the wife of an overseas diplomat, who lived in 10 foreign countries on three continents. Her experiences during her foreign service life included being in Lebanon when civil war erupted, excavating a medieval city in Moscow and spending a week under house arrest in Guinea.